Climate Shift: How Britain’s Wild Places Are Being Redrawn
From summit to sea, Britain is already feeling the effects of climate change. Nature writer Gordon Eaglesham envisions a troubled future that could reshape our iconic landscapes forever.
Things are heating up in the UK – climate breakdown is now a reality that reaches every corner of our island. Our ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, with heatwaves 30 times more likely to happen due to climate change. Five of the warmest years have occurred between 2015 and 2024. Winters are projected to become warmer and wetter, and frosts have reduced by around a quarter since the 1980s. Summers are now destined to be hotter and drier. Fast forward to 2050 and extreme heat events are likely to be happening every other year.
It’s getting wetter as well, as warmer air holds more moisture. For every 1°C of rising temperature, the air can hold 7% more water vapour. Since 1998 the UK has experienced six of the ten wettest years on record. Sea level rise is accelerating too, with the last three years the highest on record.
Our capricious climate will now keep us guessing like never before, as relative stability is replaced with volatility, and unprecedented pressures are placed on our wild spaces and the nature and infrastructure within them. So, what might Britain’s landscapes look like in the near future, and can we all adapt quickly enough?
A possible vision of the Scottish Highlands 50 years from now, where heavier rainfall triggers frequent landslides, rockfalls and the loss of once well-defined mountain paths.
Morphing Mountains
Will that satisfying crunch of snow underfoot soon be a thing of the past, with crampons a distant memory? Well, don’t banish them to the back of the garage just yet. While it’s true that the white stuff isn’t lingering as long due to our warming climate, global warming is making the Gulf Stream more unstable, which can actually lead to more extreme winters.
They may not last as long, but when temperatures do tumble, expect big dumps of snow at higher elevations and biblical blizzards on the tops, followed by rapid thaws and an increased avalanche risk. Lower down, snow below 400m is likely to become a rare sight. And we’ll be saying farewell to patches of snow that currently cling on year-round in sheltered corries – the most famous of which lies at Garbh Choire Mor on Braeriach.
British winters are also forecast to get wetter, with more intense rainfall hitting the slopes hard. This will speed up erosion and make rockfalls and landslides more common, with navigation being called on more often with well-worn paths vanishing in the deluge.
A potential future for upland peatlands, where warmer, drier conditions cause peat bogs to dry, crack and release stored carbon back into the atmosphere.
Conversely, climate breakdown will make drier, hotter summers more common, leading to peatland – a vital carbon dioxide sponge – to dry out, with less boggy ground in general. When peatlands lose their moisture they can be damaged more easily, releasing more planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Throw the heightened risk of wildfires into the mix and you have a recipe for disaster.
A glimpse of how UK woodlands could look in the decades ahead, with prolonged drought and heatwaves increasing the frequency and intensity of summer wildfires.
Forests in Flux
Climate change will be a boon for two banes of the British summer – ticks and midges. Replacing shorts with trousers for your favourite woodland wander could become a necessity, as the milder, more humid and generally wetter-for-longer weather patterns stretch their active seasons throughout the year. In the case of the Lyme disease-carrying tick, milder winters will also lead them to thrive at higher altitudes.
With an increasing probability of droughts, storms, floods and wildfires, our trees will be stress-tested like never before by extreme weather, alongside generally wetter and milder conditions giving rise to longer growing seasons in certain areas. So, perhaps denser undergrowth and more deadwood to clamber through and over is on the cards, with warmer winters creating more favourable conditions for pests and disease outbreaks.
A warming climate also increases the likelihood of woodland surviving at higher elevations, with shrubland (or scrub as it’s more commonly known) projected to reach up into the subarctic regions of the Scottish Cairngorms in greater densities. Imagine setting out to bag a Munro in woodland that never leaves your side, all the way to the top.
A future Lake District valley inundated by extreme rainfall, showing how more intense storms could overwhelm rivers and floodplains with increasing regularity.
River Dynamism
Rivers will need to be reconnected to their floodplains to cope with increasingly intense flooding events – making ephemeral wetland habitat a more common sight once again across the British Isles. River erosion will become more noticeable, as increasingly powerful flows emerge following downpours and storms, exacerbating flood damage. Say farewell to clear water and hello to more brown murk, with increasing damage in general potentially affecting key crossing points.
Harmful algal blooms in our rivers could occur more often, as heavier rainfall washes concentrations of nutrients off the land into warming waters. Research into lochs and reservoirs in Scotland has already shown there to be rapid and extensive warming due to climate change. In summer, expect to see more rivers at record low levels – or drying out completely. Taking a shortcut across an arid-looking riverbed could become a feature of many a hike. There are natural solutions to help mitigate this, such as the reintroduction of beavers, who are masters at helping to hold water back and trap sediment and pollutants through their dam-building.
A vision of the UK’s future coastline, as rising sea levels and more powerful storms accelerate cliff erosion and increase the risk of coastal flooding.
Eroding Coastlines
Many coastal areas of the British Isles – such as Eastern England – are already feeling the dramatic effects of climate change-driven erosion. Erosion caused by more frequent and potent storms combined with sea level rises that are increasing faster than the global average. Our current map of coastal paths will inevitably have to be redrawn in the future, with these effects forecast to accelerate with every increment of warming bringing ever-more volatile conditions to our seas. Think larger waves and stronger storm surges. But help is on hand from nature-based solutions.
Solutions such as seagrass meadows and kelp forests can act as buffers during storms, taking a lot of the energy out of wave impacts and surges that would otherwise be devouring their way through rock, sand and soil. Initiatives like the Sussex Kelp Recovery Project and Project Seagrass – based in Wales – are leading the way in bringing these habitats back to UK waters. But even with this on our side, we’ll have to get used to more crumbling cliffs and coastal flooding in the future.
A mountain hare in its winter coat, starkly exposed in a snowless landscape. Warming winters could leave native wildlife vulnerable and out of sync with their environment.
Wildlife Under Pressure
As Britain’s climate map is being redrawn, there are many losers and only a few winners in the animal kingdom. Our mountain hares now look out of place and vulnerable to predation in their white winter pelage – now robbed of their camouflage by milder winters where snowfall is a novelty, not the norm. They’ll be gradually forced to move to even higher elevations, shrinking their habitat and feeding opportunities.
Warming rivers with a lack of shade are already having a detrimental impact on Atlantic salmon. For eggs to develop, cold water is key. If it rises above 12°C, they’re unlikely to survive. Adult salmon start to suffer from around 23°C. Add on four more degrees and you reach a lethal limit. Tree planting along rivers is one mitigation technique that is thankfully already being employed.
A possible future scene in Scottish rivers, where rising water temperatures and low summer flows could push Atlantic salmon beyond their tolerance, leading to increased fish mortality.
Two iconic birds of the British Isles – the capercaillie and puffin – face uncertain futures due to climate change. For the world’s largest grouse, more frequent cold and wet weather around the time of hatching during late May-June is leading to lower survival rates, partly because much of the insect life they depend on for food is also impacted. For the puffin, rising sea temperatures are causing vital prey – such as sandeels – to move into cooler, deeper waters, meaning the puffins need to fly much further for a meal.
With climatic zones on the move and our seasons seemingly now in a perpetual state of confusion, our fauna and flora will need to adjust quickly if they’re to survive and thrive in these unpredictable times.
